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- See https://mc-stan.org/rstanarm/articles/priors for changes to default priors!
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#Selecting necessary variables
data <- dplyr::select(data, c("YEAR", "COMPANY", "MARKET.CAP", "EARNINGS", "SALES", "CASH", "Name", "Sector", "Earnings_next_year"))
rand_data <- dplyr::select(data, c("YEAR", "COMPANY", "MARKET.CAP", "EARNINGS", "SALES", "CASH", "Name", "Sector", "Earnings_next_year"))
#Scaling Variables of Interest
data <- data %>%
mutate(EARNINGS_Scaled = EARNINGS/1000000000,
CASH_Scaled = CASH/1000000000,
MARKET.CAP_Scaled = MARKET.CAP/1000000000,
Earnings_next_year_Scaled = Earnings_next_year/1000000000,
SALES_Scaled = SALES/1000000000)
#Adding Lagged Variables
data <- data %>%
group_by(COMPANY) %>%
mutate(EARNINGS_1_YEAR_AGO = lead(EARNINGS_Scaled, n = 1),
EARNINGS_2_YEAR_AGO = lead(EARNINGS_Scaled, n = 2),
EARNINGS_3_YEAR_AGO = lead(EARNINGS_Scaled, n = 3),
EARNINGS_4_YEAR_AGO = lead(EARNINGS_Scaled, n = 4)) %>%
mutate(SALES_1_YEAR_AGO = lead(SALES_Scaled, n = 1),
SALES_2_YEAR_AGO = lead(SALES_Scaled, n = 2),
SALES_3_YEAR_AGO = lead(SALES_Scaled, n = 3),
SALES_4_YEAR_AGO = lead(SALES_Scaled, n = 4))
#Scaling Variables of Interest & Adding Lagged Variables to random subset of full data
rand_data <- rand_data %>%
mutate(EARNINGS_Scaled = EARNINGS/1000000000,
CASH_Scaled = CASH/1000000000,
SALES_Scaled = SALES/1000000000,
MARKET.CAP_Scaled = MARKET.CAP/1000000000,
Earnings_next_year_Scaled = Earnings_next_year/1000000000,
SALES_Scaled = SALES/1000000000,
Earnings_1_years_ago = lead(EARNINGS_Scaled),
Earnings_2_years_ago = lead(EARNINGS_Scaled, n =2),
Earnings_3_years_ago = lead(EARNINGS_Scaled, n =3),
Earnings_4_years_ago = lead(EARNINGS_Scaled, n =4)) %>%
mutate(SALES_1_YEAR_AGO = lead(SALES_Scaled, n = 1),
SALES_2_YEAR_AGO = lead(SALES_Scaled, n = 2),
SALES_3_YEAR_AGO = lead(SALES_Scaled, n = 3),
SALES_4_YEAR_AGO = lead(SALES_Scaled, n = 4))
In our last model specification, we decided to use the bayesforcas package. In particular we are fitting a SARIMA model in Stan.
SARIMA stands for seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average. This is an extension of ARIMA and is therefore more robust as it is able to support seasonal data.
ARIMA is a method that combines both auto-regressive methods and moving averages- it is widely used on time series data in attempts to predict future values. There are four components that explain time series data, trend, seasonality, irregularity, and cyclic components.
Here are the parameters for an ARIMA model:
P - order of the AR term. This is the number of Y to be used as predictors. For example, if we are predicting 2021 earnings, how many previous years earnings are we going to use? Q- Order of the MA term. This is the number of lagged forecast errors. How many past forecast errors will we be using? D- the minimum differencing period. A stationary time series implies one that has properties that do not depend on the time at which the series is observed.
As mentioned above, SARIMA is able to support seasonal data. Below are the parameters for a SARIMA model that ARIMA does not have. P- Seasonal autoregressive order. A P=1 would make use of the first seasonally offset observation in the model, e.g. t-(m1) or t-12. A P=2, would use the last two seasonally offset observations t-(m1), t-(m2). D- Seasonal difference order. A D of 1 would calculate a first order seasonal difference and a Q=1 would use a first order error in the model (e.g. moving average). Q Seasonal moving average order. M- The number of time steps for a single seasonal period. M is a very important parameter as it influences the P, D, and Q parameters. For example, an m of 5 for yearly data suggests a 5-year seasonal cycle (in the context of business cycles.
library(bayesforecast)
The reason that we are using Bayesian forecast is that using Bayesian forecast, we could see the prediction of the earnings not for next year but for 10 years in the future. Bayesian forecast was created based on seasonal order, trend or seasonality, which could predict the model fairly accurately.
After running the model, we then move on to predict the earnings of the future year for the companies. The companies we are going to predict will be Amazon (symbol: “AMZN”), American Airlines (symbol: “AAL”), and Koka Kola (symbol: “KO”).
AMZN <- data %>%
filter(COMPANY == 'AMZN') %>%
dplyr::select(EARNINGS_Scaled) %>%
arrange(EARNINGS_Scaled)
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
vector <- AMZN$EARNINGS_Scaled
myts <- ts(vector, start=c(1999), end=c(2021), frequency=1)
sf1 = stan_sarima(ts = myts,order = c(1,1,1),seasonal = c(1,1,1),
prior_mu0 = student(mu = 0,sd = 1,df = 7))
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
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http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
autoplot(forecast(object = sf1,h = 12))
First, for Amazon, we could see that the earnings are predicted to increase from 2021 to 2030, moving from 21 billions to around 38 billions in 2030. However, we could see that the prediction states that the earnings growth tends to slow down over time over the period.
We then move on to the other companies: Microsoft and American Airlines:
AAL <- data %>%
filter(COMPANY == 'AAL') %>%
dplyr::select(EARNINGS_Scaled) %>%
arrange(EARNINGS_Scaled)
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
vector <- AAL$EARNINGS_Scaled
myts <- ts(vector, start=c(1999), end=c(2021), frequency=1)
sf1 = stan_sarima(ts = myts,order = c(1,1,1),seasonal = c(1,1,1),
prior_mu0 = student(mu = 0,sd = 1,df = 7))
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
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check_residuals(sf1)
autoplot(forecast(object = sf1,h = 12))
For American Airlines, we see a different story. As we can see from the graph, as airlines industry is an extremely cyclical field, the earnings fluctuate a lot. We could see that they fluctuate a lot during the previous years. With that in mind, the model predicts that American Airlines will not improve the much during the following years from 2021 to 2030 as predicting a cyclical company’s earnings could be a really difficult story. It did not show the similar pattern as Amazon.
KO <- data %>%
filter(COMPANY == 'KO') %>%
dplyr::select(EARNINGS_Scaled) %>%
arrange(EARNINGS_Scaled)
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
vector_KO <- KO$EARNINGS_Scaled
myts_KO <- ts(vector_KO, start=c(1999), end=c(2015), frequency=1)
sfKO = stan_sarima(ts = myts_KO,order = c(1,1,1),seasonal = c(1,1,1),
prior_mu0 = student(mu = 0,sd = 1,df = 7))
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forecast(object = sfKO,h = 12)
For Coca Cola, it follows the same case as American Airlines. Even though the earnings increase over time, the model predicts that Ford’s earning will stay relatively the same throughout the year from 2021 to 2030. It should be fairly clear as Coca Cola is a company that has developed for a really long period of time and can be considered to be a dividend company. With that in mind, it is fairly reasonable to see the earnings of the company to stay relatively the same after a period.
Q <- quantile(data$Earnings_next_year_Scaled, probs=c(.25, .75), na.rm = TRUE)
iqr <- IQR(data$Earnings_next_year_Scaled, na.rm = TRUE)
up <- Q[2]+.90*iqr # Upper Range
low<- Q[1]-.90*iqr # Lower Range
eliminated<- subset(data, data$Earnings_next_year_Scaled > (low) & data$Earnings_next_year_Scaled < (up))
data_elimatedO <- eliminated
COMPANY_Names <- data_elimatedO$COMPANY
unique_COMPANY <- unique(COMPANY_Names)
unique_COMPANY
[1] "A" "AAL" "AAP" "AAPL" "ABBV" "ABC" "ABMD" "ABT" "ACN" "ADBE" "ADI" "ADM"
[13] "ADP" "ADSK" "AEE" "AEP" "AES" "AFL" "AIG" "AIZ" "AJG" "AKAM" "ALB" "ALGN"
[25] "ALK" "ALL" "ALLE" "AMAT" "AMCR" "AMD" "AME" "AMGN" "AMP" "AMT" "AMZN" "ANET"
[37] "ANSS" "ANTM" "AON" "AOS" "APA" "APD" "APH" "APTV" "ARE" "ATO" "ATVI" "AVB"
[49] "AVGO" "AVY" "AWK" "AXP" "AZO" "BA" "BAC" "BAX" "BBY" "BDX" "BEN" "BIIB"
[61] "BIO" "BK" "BKNG" "BKR" "BLK" "BLL" "BMY" "BR" "BRO" "BSX" "BWA" "BXP"
[73] "CAG" "CAH" "CARR" "CAT" "CB" "CBOE" "CBRE" "CCI" "CCL" "CDAY" "CDNS" "CDW"
[85] "CE" "CERN" "CF" "CFG" "CHD" "CHRW" "CHTR" "CI" "CINF" "CL" "CLX" "CMA"
[97] "CMCSA" "CME" "CMG" "CMI" "CMS" "CNC" "CNP" "COF" "COO" "COP" "COST" "CPB"
[109] "CPRT" "CRL" "CRM" "CSCO" "CSX" "CTAS" "CTLT" "CTSH" "CTVA" "CTXS" "CVS" "CVX"
[121] "CZR" "D" "DAL" "DD" "DE" "DFS" "DG" "DGX" "DHI" "DHR" "DIS" "DISCA"
[133] "DISCK" "DISH" "DLR" "DLTR" "DOV" "DOW" "DPZ" "DRE" "DRI" "DTE" "DUK" "DVA"
[145] "DVN" "DXC" "DXCM" "EA" "EBAY" "ECL" "ED" "EFX" "EIX" "EL" "EMN" "EMR"
[157] "ENPH" "EOG" "EQIX" "EQR" "ES" "ESS" "ETN" "ETR" "ETSY" "EVRG" "EW" "EXC"
[169] "EXPD" "EXPE" "EXR" "F" "FANG" "FAST" "FB" "FBHS" "FCX" "FDX" "FE" "FFIV"
[181] "FIS" "FISV" "FITB" "FLT" "FMC" "FOX" "FOXA" "FRC" "FRT" "FTNT" "FTV" "GD"
[193] "GILD" "GIS" "GL" "GLW" "GNRC" "GOOG" "GOOGL" "GPC" "GPN" "GPS" "GRMN" "GS"
[205] "GWW" "HAL" "HAS" "HBAN" "HBI" "HCA" "HD" "HES" "HIG" "HII" "HLT" "HOLX"
[217] "HON" "HPE" "HPQ" "HRL" "HSIC" "HST" "HSY" "HUM" "HWM" "ICE" "IDXX" "IEX"
[229] "IFF" "ILMN" "INCY" "INFO" "INTC" "INTU" "IP" "IPG" "IPGP" "IQV" "IR" "IRM"
[241] "ISRG" "IT" "ITW" "IVZ" "J" "JBHT" "JCI" "JKHY" "JNJ" "JNPR" "JPM" "K"
[253] "KEY" "KEYS" "KHC" "KIM" "KLAC" "KMB" "KMI" "KMX" "KO" "KR" "KSU" "L"
[265] "LDOS" "LEG" "LEN" "LH" "LHX" "LIN" "LKQ" "LLY" "LMT" "LNC" "LNT" "LOW"
[277] "LRCX" "LUMN" "LUV" "LVS" "LW" "LYB" "LYV" "MA" "MAA" "MAR" "MAS" "MCD"
[289] "MCHP" "MCK" "MCO" "MDLZ" "MDT" "MET" "MGM" "MHK" "MKC" "MKTX" "MLM" "MMC"
[301] "MMM" "MNST" "MOS" "MPC" "MPWR" "MRK" "MRNA" "MRO" "MS" "MSCI" "MSI" "MTB"
[313] "MTCH" "MTD" "MU" "NCLH" "NDAQ" "NEE" "NEM" "NFLX" "NI" "NKE" "NLOK" "NLSN"
[325] "NOC" "NOW" "NRG" "NSC" "NTAP" "NTRS" "NUE" "NVDA" "NVR" "NWL" "NWS" "NWSA"
[337] "NXPI" "O" "ODFL" "OKE" "OMC" "ORCL" "ORLY" "OTIS" "OXY" "PAYC" "PAYX" "PBCT"
[349] "PCAR" "PEAK" "PEG" "PENN" "PEP" "PFG" "PGR" "PH" "PHM" "PKG" "PKI" "PLD"
[361] "PNC" "PNR" "PNW" "POOL" "PPG" "PPL" "PRU" "PSA" "PSX" "PTC" "PVH" "PWR"
[373] "PXD" "PYPL" "QCOM" "QRVO" "RCL" "RE" "REG" "REGN" "RF" "RHI" "RJF" "RL"
[385] "RMD" "ROK" "ROL" "ROP" "ROST" "RSG" "RTX" "SBAC" "SBUX" "SCHW" "SEE" "SHW"
[397] "SIVB" "SJM" "SLB" "SNA" "SNPS" "SO" "SPG" "SPGI" "SRE" "STE" "STT" "STX"
[409] "STZ" "SWK" "SWKS" "SYF" "SYK" "SYY" "TAP" "TDG" "TDY" "TECH" "TEL" "TER"
[421] "TFC" "TFX" "TGT" "TJX" "TMO" "TMUS" "TPR" "TRMB" "TROW" "TRV" "TSCO" "TSLA"
[433] "TSN" "TT" "TTWO" "TWTR" "TXN" "TXT" "TYL" "UA" "UAA" "UAL" "UDR" "UHS"
[445] "ULTA" "UNH" "UNP" "UPS" "URI" "USB" "V" "VFC" "VIAC" "VLO" "VMC" "VNO"
[457] "VRSK" "VRSN" "VRTX" "VTR" "VTRS" "VZ" "WAB" "WAT" "WBA" "WDC" "WEC" "WELL"
[469] "WHR" "WLTW" "WM" "WMB" "WRB" "WRK" "WST" "WU" "WY" "WYNN" "XEL" "XLNX"
[481] "XRAY" "XYL" "YUM" "ZBH" "ZBRA" "ZION" "ZTS"
data_elimatedO %>%
group_by(COMPANY) %>%
summarize(n=n()) %>%
filter(n <= 2)
unique_COMPANY_2 <-unique_COMPANY
unique_COMPANY_2 = unique_COMPANY_2[factor(unique_COMPANY_2) %in% c("ABBV","AMCR" ,"BAC" ,"CARR", "CTVA", "DOW", "FB", "GOOG", "GOOGL", "INTC", "JNJ", "OTIS", "PSX", "FOX", "FOXA", "HD", "KHC", "LYB", "MDLZ", "MRK", "MRNA", "OTIS", "PEP", "JPM") == FALSE]
total_number_of_COMPANY <- length(unique_COMPANY)
total_number_of_COMPANY_2 <- length(unique_COMPANY_2)
total_number_of_COMPANY
[1] 487
total_number_of_COMPANY_2
[1] 464
unique_COMPANY_2[150 + 87]
[1] "K"
150 + 87
[1] 237
data_elimatedO %>%
filter(COMPANY == "FOXA")
one_year_only <- data_elimatedO %>%
group_by(COMPANY) %>%
mutate(number_of_year = sum(YEAR)) %>%
filter(number_of_year < 2021)
COMPANY_one_year <- one_year_only$COMPANY
unique_COMPANY_one_year <- unique(COMPANY_one_year)
#filter(number_of_year < 2)
# filter(COMPANY == "ABBV") %>%
# count(YEAR)
unique_COMPANY_one_year
[1] "ABBV" "AMCR" "BAC" "CARR" "CTVA" "DOW" "FB" "GOOG" "GOOGL" "INTC" "JNJ" "OTIS"
[13] "PSX"
## 61, 62, 63, 64, 90, DALcó thể bị lỗi
data_elimatedO %>%
filter(COMPANY == unique_COMPANY[152])
total_number_of_COMPANY_2
[1] 464
464-237 + 1
[1] 228
point <- high <- low <- rep(0, 464)
for (i in 1: total_number_of_COMPANY_2) {
company <- unique_COMPANY_2[i]
data_new <- data_elimatedO %>%
filter(COMPANY == company) %>%
dplyr::select(EARNINGS_Scaled, YEAR) %>%
mutate(min_year = min(YEAR),
max_year = max(YEAR)) %>%
arrange(EARNINGS_Scaled)
min_year <- data_new$min_year[1]
max_year <- data_new$max_year[1]
vector <- data_new$EARNINGS_Scaled
myts <- ts(vector, start=c(min_year), end=c(max_year), frequency=1)
sf1 = stan_sarima(ts = myts,order = c(1,1,1),seasonal = c(1,1,1),
prior_mu0 = student(mu = 0,sd = 1,df = 7))
result = forecast(object = sf1,h = 1)
point[i] <- result$mean
low[i] <- result$lower[2]
high[i] <- result$upper[2]
}
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
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Warning: There were 3 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
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http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
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Chain 2:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.2 seconds.
Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 3:
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Chain 3: 0.069208 seconds (Sampling)
Chain 3: 0.170721 seconds (Total)
Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1.7e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.17 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 54 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.3e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.23 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 2:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.2 seconds.
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1.1e-05 seconds
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Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 3 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 1.1e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2.5e-05 seconds
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 1 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.22 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 1.7e-05 seconds
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Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 1.9e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.19 seconds.
Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.2 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 12 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.2 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 1.6e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.16 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1.9e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.19 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 56 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 1.9e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.19 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
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Chain 2:
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Chain 2: 0.101439 seconds (Sampling)
Chain 2: 0.248635 seconds (Total)
Chain 2:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 1.7e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.17 seconds.
Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 3:
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Chain 3: 0.094858 seconds (Sampling)
Chain 3: 0.243298 seconds (Total)
Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2.8e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.28 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
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Chain 4: 0.081334 seconds (Sampling)
Chain 4: 0.241802 seconds (Total)
Chain 4:
Warning: There were 29 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.2 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 1.8e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.18 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 2:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 2.5e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.25 seconds.
Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.22 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 2 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 3e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.3 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 1.9e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.19 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 2:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1.6e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.16 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Warning: There were 10 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.22 seconds.
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 1.7e-05 seconds
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Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1.8e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.18 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Warning: There were 1 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.6e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.26 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.6e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
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Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.22 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
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Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.2 seconds.
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 1 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.2 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.9e-05 seconds
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Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 1.9e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2.3e-05 seconds
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Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.2 seconds.
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 1 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.2 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
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Warning: There were 5 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
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Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
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Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 3e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.3 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
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Chain 4: 0.098159 seconds (Sampling)
Chain 4: 0.269136 seconds (Total)
Chain 4:
Warning: There were 2 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
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Chain 1: 0.107716 seconds (Sampling)
Chain 1: 0.296651 seconds (Total)
Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 1.9e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.19 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 2:
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Chain 2: 0.361735 seconds (Total)
Chain 2:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 3:
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Chain 3: 0.318017 seconds (Total)
Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1.7e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.17 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 4 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.2 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 1.1e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.11 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 2:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1.9e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.19 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 1 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.2 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.3e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.23 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 2:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.2 seconds.
Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2.3e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.23 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 22 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.6e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.26 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 1.3e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.13 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 2.3e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.23 seconds.
Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.2 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 2 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 3.3e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.33 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.2 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 2:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 1.6e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.16 seconds.
Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1.9e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.19 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 18 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.2 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
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Chain 1: 0.103311 seconds (Sampling)
Chain 1: 0.194716 seconds (Total)
Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.3e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.23 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 2:
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Chain 2: 0.200886 seconds (Total)
Chain 2:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 1.8e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.18 seconds.
Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 3: 0.177995 seconds (Total)
Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1.6e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.16 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4: 0.083984 seconds (Sampling)
Chain 4: 0.174464 seconds (Total)
Chain 4:
Warning: There were 1 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.3e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.23 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
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Chain 1: 0.089198 seconds (Sampling)
Chain 1: 0.268201 seconds (Total)
Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 1.6e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.16 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 2:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 1.8e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.18 seconds.
Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 3: 0.239909 seconds (Total)
Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1.3e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.13 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 37 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
Chain 1:
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.22 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 2:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 1.5e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.15 seconds.
Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1.9e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.19 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 20 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.2 seconds.
Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1.8e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.18 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 4 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.8e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.28 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 1.2e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.12 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 2:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 2.4e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.24 seconds.
Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.2 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 42 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
Chain 1:
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Chain 1:
Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.099207 seconds (Warm-up)
Chain 1: 0.104396 seconds (Sampling)
Chain 1: 0.203603 seconds (Total)
Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.4e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.24 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 2:
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Chain 2: 0.210893 seconds (Total)
Chain 2:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.2 seconds.
Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 3:
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Chain 3: 0.190587 seconds (Total)
Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2.6e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.26 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
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Chain 4: 0.093633 seconds (Sampling)
Chain 4: 0.189803 seconds (Total)
Chain 4:
Warning: There were 2 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 1.9e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.19 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
Chain 1:
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Chain 1:
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Chain 1: 0.205132 seconds (Total)
Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.4e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.24 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 2:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.2 seconds.
Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.2 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 3.7e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.37 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 2:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 2.4e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.24 seconds.
Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2.3e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.23 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 3 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.2 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 1.8e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.18 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2.4e-05 seconds
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Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 1.9e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.19 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1.9e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.19 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 6 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.2 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
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Chain 2:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 2.6e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2.4e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.24 seconds.
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 5 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 1.9e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.19 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
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Warning: There were 15 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
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Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
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Warning: There were 2 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
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Warning: There were 2 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
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Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
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Chain 2:
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Chain 2: 0.264116 seconds (Total)
Chain 2:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 2.5e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.25 seconds.
Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 3:
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Chain 3: 0.099666 seconds (Sampling)
Chain 3: 0.248198 seconds (Total)
Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1.5e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.15 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
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Chain 4: 0.172789 seconds (Sampling)
Chain 4: 0.324831 seconds (Total)
Chain 4:
Warning: There were 30 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 1.9e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.19 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
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Chain 1: 0.304044 seconds (Total)
Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.4e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.24 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 2:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 2.3e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.23 seconds.
Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1.9e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.19 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 4 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.22 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1: 0.328588 seconds (Total)
Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.22 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 2:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 1.6e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.16 seconds.
Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1.6e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.16 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 25 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.2 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 1.2e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.12 seconds.
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 2.7e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.27 seconds.
Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1.7e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.17 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 1 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 1.6e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 1.7e-05 seconds
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1e-05 seconds
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Chain 4:
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.4e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.24 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
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Chain 2:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 1.5e-05 seconds
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Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
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Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 3 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 1.4e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1.9e-05 seconds
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Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 2 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.2 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
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Warning: There were 1 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 1.9e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.19 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
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Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
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Warning: There were 1 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.2 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.2 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 3 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.2 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 1.6e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.16 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 2:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.22 seconds.
Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1.1e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.11 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 7 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.3e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.23 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 2:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 1.2e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.12 seconds.
Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 1 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.2 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.22 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 2:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
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Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1.5e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.15 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 8 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.3e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.23 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 1.3e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.13 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 1.3e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.13 seconds.
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.22 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.4e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.24 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 1.7e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.17 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 1e-05 seconds
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.2 seconds.
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Chain 4: 0.331554 seconds (Total)
Chain 4:
Warning: There were 2 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
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Chain 1: 0.131189 seconds (Sampling)
Chain 1: 0.304072 seconds (Total)
Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.2 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 2:
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Chain 2: 0.301578 seconds (Total)
Chain 2:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 9e-06 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.09 seconds.
Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2.5e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.25 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 64 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.9e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.29 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.2 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 2:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 1.6e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.16 seconds.
Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2.6e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.26 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 8 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.2 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 2:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 1.2e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.12 seconds.
Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1.8e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.18 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 60 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.2 seconds.
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 1.9e-05 seconds
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Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1.8e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.18 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 1 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.5e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.25 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.7e-05 seconds
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Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1.9e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.19 seconds.
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 13 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 1.9e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.19 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 1.3e-05 seconds
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Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 1.8e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1.7e-05 seconds
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Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 64 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.2 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 3.4e-05 seconds
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Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 2.4e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
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Warning: There were 2 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 3.2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.32 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.3e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.23 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
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Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.2 seconds.
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
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Warning: There were 9 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 1.9e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.19 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
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Warning: There were 1 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
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Chain 1: 0.330259 seconds (Total)
Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 1.5e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.15 seconds.
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Chain 2:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 2.3e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.23 seconds.
Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 2 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.22 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.3e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.23 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 3.2e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.32 seconds.
Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 1 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 1.9e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.19 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.3e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.23 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 2.6e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.26 seconds.
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1.3e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.13 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.2 seconds.
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2.5e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.25 seconds.
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Chain 4:
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
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Chain 4:
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.9e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1.7e-05 seconds
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 5 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1.8e-05 seconds
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Warning: There were 9 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.2 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 9e-06 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
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Warning: There were 7 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
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Warning: There were 7 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 1.9e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.19 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
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Warning: There were 2 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 1.3e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.13 seconds.
Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 3:
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Chain 3: 0.098903 seconds (Sampling)
Chain 3: 0.235723 seconds (Total)
Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1.8e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.18 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
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Chain 4: 0.089403 seconds (Sampling)
Chain 4: 0.229078 seconds (Total)
Chain 4:
Warning: There were 1 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.22 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
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Chain 1: 0.094644 seconds (Sampling)
Chain 1: 0.233605 seconds (Total)
Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 1.9e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.19 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 2:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 1.9e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.19 seconds.
Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2.7e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.27 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4: 0.287078 seconds (Total)
Chain 4:
Warning: There were 4 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 1.9e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.19 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1: 0.081499 seconds (Sampling)
Chain 1: 0.243615 seconds (Total)
Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 3.3e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.33 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 2:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 1.6e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.16 seconds.
Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1.4e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.14 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 138 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.2 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 1.1e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.11 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 2:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 1.5e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.15 seconds.
Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 1 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.2 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.2 seconds.
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1.6e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.16 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 46 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 1.7e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.17 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 2:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 2.3e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.23 seconds.
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
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Chain 4:
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.3e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.23 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 4 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 1.9e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.19 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1.8e-05 seconds
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Warning: There were 12 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.2 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 1.9e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1.8e-05 seconds
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Warning: There were 11 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.6e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.26 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2.4e-05 seconds
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Warning: There were 7 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.5e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.25 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
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Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.17 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4: 0.417358 seconds (Total)
Chain 4:
Warning: There were 114 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Warning: The largest R-hat is 1.06, indicating chains have not mixed.
Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#r-hat
Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 1.9e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.19 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 1.3e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.13 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 2:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 1.8e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.18 seconds.
Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 9e-06 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.09 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.2 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 1.1e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.11 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 2:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 2.3e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.23 seconds.
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1.2e-05 seconds
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Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.2 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.4e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 2.3e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1.4e-05 seconds
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Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 1 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.3e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.23 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
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Chain 4:
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.22 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 1.6e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 2 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
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Chain 1: 0.094113 seconds (Sampling)
Chain 1: 0.245058 seconds (Total)
Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.2 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 2:
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Chain 2: 0.274668 seconds (Total)
Chain 2:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 1.7e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.17 seconds.
Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 3: 0.253749 seconds (Total)
Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1.7e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.17 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4: 0.114739 seconds (Sampling)
Chain 4: 0.270694 seconds (Total)
Chain 4:
Warning: There were 1 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
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Chain 1: 0.164639 seconds (Total)
Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 1.8e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.18 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 2:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.2 seconds.
Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2.3e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.23 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 1 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 1.7e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.17 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 2:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.2 seconds.
Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 3.1e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.31 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 28 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.2 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.5e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.25 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 2:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 1.5e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.15 seconds.
Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1.2e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.12 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 10 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.3e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.23 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.3e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.23 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 2:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 1.9e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.19 seconds.
Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1.3e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.13 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 9 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.2 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 1.3e-05 seconds
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Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 1.3e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1.7e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.17 seconds.
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Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.22 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 1.1e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 2.4e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1.2e-05 seconds
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Chain 4:
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 1.9e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.19 seconds.
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
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Chain 4:
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.9e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.29 seconds.
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 1.1e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.2 seconds.
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 3 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.22 seconds.
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
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Chain 4:
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.3e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.23 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 1.9e-05 seconds
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Chain 2:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 2.6e-05 seconds
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Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1.8e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.18 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 3 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 1.1e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 1.1e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1.2e-05 seconds
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 3 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 5.9e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.59 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.22 seconds.
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
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Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.22 seconds.
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
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Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.19 seconds.
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
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Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
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Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.2 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 10 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 1.4e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.14 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 2:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.22 seconds.
Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
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Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 1.9e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.19 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 3.1e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.31 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
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Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.17 seconds.
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1.8e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.18 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Warning: There were 33 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.22 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1.8e-05 seconds
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Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.4e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.24 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
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Warning: There were 14 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.2 seconds.
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
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Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
Chain 1:
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Chain 1:
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Chain 1: 0.296692 seconds (Total)
Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 1.1e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.11 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 2:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 1.9e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.19 seconds.
Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2.3e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.23 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 1 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.22 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.2 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 2:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 1e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.1 seconds.
Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2.3e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.23 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 33 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 1.6e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.16 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 2:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 1.1e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.11 seconds.
Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1.1e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.11 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 1.8e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.18 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 7e-06 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.07 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 1e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 4.2e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.42 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 10 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.2 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2.6e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.26 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 2 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.2 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 1.9e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
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Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.2 seconds.
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 1.2e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1e-05 seconds
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Warning: There were 11 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
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Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
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Warning: There were 6 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 1.9e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.19 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 1.9e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
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Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.2 seconds.
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
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Warning: There were 6 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
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Chain 2:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 1.7e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.17 seconds.
Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2.3e-05 seconds
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Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.4e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.24 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 1.3e-05 seconds
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Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 2:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 3.9e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.39 seconds.
Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1.7e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.17 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 3 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.22 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 1.3e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.13 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 2:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 2.4e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.24 seconds.
Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1.6e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.16 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 4 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.3e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.23 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.22 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 2:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 3.3e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.33 seconds.
Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1.9e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.19 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 9 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.2 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 2:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.22 seconds.
Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1.4e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.14 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 70 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.8e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.28 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 1.6e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.16 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 2:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 1e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.1 seconds.
Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 3.1e-05 seconds
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Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 2 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.2 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 1.9e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.19 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 1.2e-05 seconds
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Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
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Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.22 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.8e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2.4e-05 seconds
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 1 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.22 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
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Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 2 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.22 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
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Warning: There were 1 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 1.9e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.19 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
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Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 4e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.4 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 1.6e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
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Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 1.9e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2.6e-05 seconds
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Warning: There were 3 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.2 seconds.
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
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Warning: There were 1 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
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Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.7e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
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Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.5e-05 seconds
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Chain 1:
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Chain 1: 0.198771 seconds (Total)
Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 1.3e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.13 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 2:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 3e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.3 seconds.
Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2.3e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.23 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 1 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 3.3e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.33 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.22 seconds.
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 2.7e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.27 seconds.
Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1.2e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.12 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 1 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 1.9e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.19 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.2 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.22 seconds.
Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2.9e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.29 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 29 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.5e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.25 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.2 seconds.
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2.5e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.25 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 1 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.3e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.23 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.5e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 4.7e-05 seconds
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Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.4e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.24 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 1.2e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.12 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 2:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 1.5e-05 seconds
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Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.22 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 5 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.22 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 1.6e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 2.6e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1.2e-05 seconds
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Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 12 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.2 seconds.
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
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Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.7e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.27 seconds.
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
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Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
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Warning: There were 2 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.3e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.23 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.22 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 3 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.22 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 2:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 2.4e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.24 seconds.
Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1.6e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.16 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 3 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 8e-06 seconds
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Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 1.8e-05 seconds
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Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1.5e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.15 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 6 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.6e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.26 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 1.1e-05 seconds
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Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1.9e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.19 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 28 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.2 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 9e-06 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.09 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 2.3e-05 seconds
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.22 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 2 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.3e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.23 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.22 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 2:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 1.9e-05 seconds
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1.7e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.17 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 8 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.22 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 1.5e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 1 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.2 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
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Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
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Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.5e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
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Warning: There were 34 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.7e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.27 seconds.
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
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Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.5e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 33 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.7e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.27 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 1.9e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.19 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 2:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 1.6e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.16 seconds.
Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
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Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.4e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.24 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 1e-05 seconds
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Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 1.7e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1.4e-05 seconds
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Chain 4:
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 1.9e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 3.9e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.39 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 7 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.2 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1.7e-05 seconds
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Warning: There were 10 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.3e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.23 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 1.7e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1.9e-05 seconds
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Warning: There were 1 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 9e-06 seconds
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Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 9e-06 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.2 seconds.
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 11 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.3e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
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Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 1.8e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.18 seconds.
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
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Warning: There were 1 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
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Warning: There were 6 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.2 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
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Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 3e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
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Chain 2:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
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Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 4 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 1.3e-05 seconds
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Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 4.9e-05 seconds
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 8 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.22 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 1.1e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1.6e-05 seconds
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Chain 4:
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 3.5e-05 seconds
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Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Warning: There were 26 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.5e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.25 seconds.
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
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Warning: There were 3 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.2 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 3.5e-05 seconds
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Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 7 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.3e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.23 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 4.3e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 1.8e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2.3e-05 seconds
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 2 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.6e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.26 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 8e-06 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
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Warning: There were 9 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.22 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
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Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.5e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
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Warning: There were 7 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 3 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.2 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
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Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 1.4e-05 seconds
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Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2.6e-05 seconds
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Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 3 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 1.8e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.18 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 1.2e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.12 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
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Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.5e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.25 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.6e-05 seconds
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Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
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Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 1.9e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.19 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1.9e-05 seconds
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 16 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.8e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.28 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
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Warning: There were 16 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.3e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.23 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
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Warning: There were 5 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
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Warning: There were 7 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
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Warning: There were 15 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.5e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
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Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
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Warning: There were 4 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
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Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.5e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.25 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 2:
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Chain 2:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.2 seconds.
Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.2 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.22 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.22 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 2:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 1.9e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.19 seconds.
Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2.6e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.26 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 7 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.2 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 1.8e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.18 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.22 seconds.
Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1.3e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.13 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.5e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.25 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 2.5e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.25 seconds.
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1.4e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.14 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 21 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 3e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.3 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 1.5e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.15 seconds.
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1.6e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.16 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 1 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.3e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.23 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 1.2e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.12 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 1.7e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.17 seconds.
Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2.3e-05 seconds
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Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.2 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 1.9e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.19 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 2:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2.6e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.26 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 1 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 9e-06 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.09 seconds.
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Chain 2:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 1.1e-05 seconds
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1.9e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.19 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 101 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.6e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.22 seconds.
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 9e-06 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.09 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 3 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.3e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1.1e-05 seconds
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Warning: There were 1 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.22 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 1.8e-05 seconds
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1.6e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.16 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 1 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.2 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 1.6e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.16 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 2:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.2 seconds.
Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 9e-06 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.09 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 1 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.2 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1: 0.176378 seconds (Total)
Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.2 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 2:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 1.9e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.19 seconds.
Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 8e-06 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.08 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 14 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.4e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.24 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 1.9e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.19 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 2.5e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.25 seconds.
Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.22 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.2 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 9e-06 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.09 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 1.9e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 24 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.22 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 1.9e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.19 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 2:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1.8e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.18 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 20 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 1.4e-05 seconds
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Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 1.7e-05 seconds
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Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1.3e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.13 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 16 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.22 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 1e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.1 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 1.6e-05 seconds
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Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2.6e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.26 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 4 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.6e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.26 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 1.7e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.17 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.2 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 11 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.22 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 1.7e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.17 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1.9e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.19 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 2 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.22 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.2 seconds.
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2.4e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.24 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 1 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
Chain 1:
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Chain 1:
Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.113598 seconds (Warm-up)
Chain 1: 0.131379 seconds (Sampling)
Chain 1: 0.244977 seconds (Total)
Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 2:
Chain 2: Elapsed Time: 0.116582 seconds (Warm-up)
Chain 2: 0.081407 seconds (Sampling)
Chain 2: 0.197989 seconds (Total)
Chain 2:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 1.6e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.16 seconds.
Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 3:
Chain 3: Elapsed Time: 0.118912 seconds (Warm-up)
Chain 3: 0.088124 seconds (Sampling)
Chain 3: 0.207036 seconds (Total)
Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.2 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
Chain 4:
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Chain 4:
Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.123004 seconds (Warm-up)
Chain 4: 0.082675 seconds (Sampling)
Chain 4: 0.205679 seconds (Total)
Chain 4:
Warning: There were 18 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
Chain 1:
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Chain 1:
Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.122379 seconds (Warm-up)
Chain 1: 0.092462 seconds (Sampling)
Chain 1: 0.214841 seconds (Total)
Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 1.7e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.17 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 2:
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Chain 2: 0.12281 seconds (Sampling)
Chain 2: 0.247427 seconds (Total)
Chain 2:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 7e-06 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.07 seconds.
Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 3:
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Chain 3: 0.139557 seconds (Sampling)
Chain 3: 0.272307 seconds (Total)
Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 8e-06 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.08 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4: 0.09044 seconds (Sampling)
Chain 4: 0.218861 seconds (Total)
Chain 4:
Warning: There were 40 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
Chain 1:
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Chain 1: 0.209188 seconds (Total)
Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.2 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 2:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 2.4e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.24 seconds.
Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 3:
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Chain 3: 0.083795 seconds (Sampling)
Chain 3: 0.199902 seconds (Total)
Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.1 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 6 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
Chain 1:
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.5e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.25 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 2:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 2.6e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.26 seconds.
Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1.9e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.19 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 1 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
Chain 1:
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 1.1e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.11 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 2:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 1.4e-05 seconds
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Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 1 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.9e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.29 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
Chain 1:
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.4e-05 seconds
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Chain 2:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 1.5e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1.5e-05 seconds
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Warning: There were 3 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.2 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.8e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
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Warning: There were 1 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
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Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 1.9e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 6 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.5e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.25 seconds.
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
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Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 1 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.2 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 1.2e-05 seconds
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Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 1.4e-05 seconds
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Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1.1e-05 seconds
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Chain 4:
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 1.7e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.17 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1.8e-05 seconds
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Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Warning: There were 17 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.5e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.25 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 1.8e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1.8e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.18 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 9 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 1.8e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.18 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 1.1e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.11 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 7e-06 seconds
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1.9e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.19 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Warning: There were 215 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.22 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.4e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.24 seconds.
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 1.4e-05 seconds
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1.6e-05 seconds
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 2 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.22 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 1.9e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
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Warning: There were 2 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
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Warning: There were 1 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.5e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
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Warning: There were 1 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.4e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
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Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
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Chain 3: 0.113237 seconds (Sampling)
Chain 3: 0.254602 seconds (Total)
Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4: 0.24199 seconds (Total)
Chain 4:
Warning: There were 6 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.22 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
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Chain 1: 0.321385 seconds (Total)
Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 2:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.2 seconds.
Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 25 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.3e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.23 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1: 0.227352 seconds (Total)
Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 2:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.22 seconds.
Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.2 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 2 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.4e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.24 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.4e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.24 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 2.7e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.27 seconds.
Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.2 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 3 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.4e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.24 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 2:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 1.1e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.22 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 1 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.3e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.23 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 1.6e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.16 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 1.2e-05 seconds
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 4.4e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.44 seconds.
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 29 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.3e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.23 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1: 0.19784 seconds (Total)
Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 1.6e-05 seconds
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Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 2:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 1.1e-05 seconds
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Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2.3e-05 seconds
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Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 7 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.22 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 1.7e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.17 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1.9e-05 seconds
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Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 28 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.2 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.6e-05 seconds
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Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 3.1e-05 seconds
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Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 2 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.22 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.5e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
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Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 1 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 3.3e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.33 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
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Chain 1: 0.084719 seconds (Sampling)
Chain 1: 0.197063 seconds (Total)
Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 3.5e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.35 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 2:
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Chain 2: 0.197587 seconds (Total)
Chain 2:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.2 seconds.
Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 3:
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Chain 3: 0.088635 seconds (Sampling)
Chain 3: 0.187378 seconds (Total)
Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1.7e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.17 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 13 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.2 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
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Chain 1: 0.296993 seconds (Total)
Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 1e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.1 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 2:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 2.3e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.23 seconds.
Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2.5e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.25 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 2 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 1.2e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.12 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.2 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 1 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.2 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.4e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.24 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 1.9e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.19 seconds.
Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 3.2e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.32 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.4e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.24 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.4e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.2 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 5 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.6e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.26 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.4e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.24 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
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Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Warning: There were 2 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.5e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.25 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.3e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
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Chain 4:
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.2 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.6e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
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Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
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Warning: There were 3 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
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Warning: There were 5 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.3e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.23 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 1.1e-05 seconds
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Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1e-05 seconds
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Chain 4:
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.22 seconds.
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 2.5e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.25 seconds.
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2.9e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.29 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 4 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 9e-06 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 9e-06 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.09 seconds.
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 7 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.22 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 9e-06 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.09 seconds.
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1.8e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.18 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 2 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.2 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 1.9e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.19 seconds.
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 1.2e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1.2e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.12 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 3 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1.2e-05 seconds
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Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 1.7e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.17 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 1.2e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.12 seconds.
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.2 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.9e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.29 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.5e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.25 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 2:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.2 seconds.
Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1.2e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.12 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 5 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.4e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.24 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.5e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.25 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 1.7e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.17 seconds.
Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2.3e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.23 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.4e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.24 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 1.1e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.11 seconds.
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2.3e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.23 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.22 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.7e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.27 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 1.5e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.15 seconds.
Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1.4e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.14 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 79 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.22 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.084594 seconds (Warm-up)
Chain 1: 0.08616 seconds (Sampling)
Chain 1: 0.170754 seconds (Total)
Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.2 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 2:
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Chain 2: 0.147562 seconds (Total)
Chain 2:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.22 seconds.
Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 3: 0.081799 seconds (Sampling)
Chain 3: 0.165403 seconds (Total)
Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.2 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 6 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.2 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
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Chain 1: 0.086439 seconds (Sampling)
Chain 1: 0.246697 seconds (Total)
Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 1.1e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.11 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 2:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 8e-06 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.08 seconds.
Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1.9e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.19 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 76 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.4e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.24 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.6e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.26 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 2:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 9e-06 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.09 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 1 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 8e-06 seconds
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1.9e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.19 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 26 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.22 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.3e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.23 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 2:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1.5e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.15 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 1 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.22 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.135081 seconds (Warm-up)
Chain 1: 0.092339 seconds (Sampling)
Chain 1: 0.22742 seconds (Total)
Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 1.9e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.19 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 2:
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Chain 2: 0.203146 seconds (Total)
Chain 2:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.2 seconds.
Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 3:
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Chain 3: 0.230803 seconds (Total)
Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.1 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
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Chain 4: 0.228943 seconds (Total)
Chain 4:
Warning: There were 6 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 1.8e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.18 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 2:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 1.3e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.13 seconds.
Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.2 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.22 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 2:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.2 seconds.
Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2.9e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.29 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 2 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.4e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.24 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1: 0.621009 seconds (Total)
Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.22 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 2:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 1e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.1 seconds.
Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1.2e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.12 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4: 0.438585 seconds (Total)
Chain 4:
Warning: There were 173 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Warning: The largest R-hat is 1.08, indicating chains have not mixed.
Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#r-hat
Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.4e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.24 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
Chain 1:
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Chain 1: 0.250191 seconds (Total)
Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.22 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 2:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.2 seconds.
Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1.1e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.11 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 4 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.3e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.23 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
Chain 1:
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Chain 1: 0.27659 seconds (Total)
Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 1.9e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.19 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 2:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 1.5e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.15 seconds.
Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.2 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 6 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.3e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.23 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 1.7e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.17 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 1.6e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.16 seconds.
Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 9e-06 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.09 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 5 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 1.1e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.11 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 1.5e-05 seconds
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 9e-06 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.09 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 50 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 3.8e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.38 seconds.
Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.1 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 1 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.4e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.24 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1.7e-05 seconds
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Chain 4:
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.22 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 1e-05 seconds
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Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 2:
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Chain 2: 0.271995 seconds (Total)
Chain 2:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.2 seconds.
Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 3:
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Chain 3: 0.247366 seconds (Total)
Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2.7e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.27 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.8e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.28 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
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Chain 1: 0.51192 seconds (Total)
Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 1.3e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.13 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 2:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 8e-06 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.08 seconds.
Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 12 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.3e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.23 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 1.2e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.12 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 2:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 2.4e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.24 seconds.
Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1.9e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.19 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.3e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.23 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 2:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 1.7e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.17 seconds.
Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1.7e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.17 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 2 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 1.9e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.19 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 1.7e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.17 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 2:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 1.4e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.14 seconds.
Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1.3e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.13 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 25 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.3e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.23 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
Chain 1:
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Chain 1: 0.216001 seconds (Total)
Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 1.3e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.13 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 2:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 1.5e-05 seconds
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Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1.3e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.13 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 1 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.2 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.2 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 2.3e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.23 seconds.
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1.1e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.11 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 2 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.2 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 1.6e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.16 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2.5e-05 seconds
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Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2.8e-05 seconds
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Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Warning: There were 8 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.22 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
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Warning: There were 1 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.22 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
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Chain 3: 0.126683 seconds (Total)
Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 3.5e-05 seconds
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Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.3e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.23 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
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Chain 1: 0.232347 seconds (Total)
Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 1.1e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.11 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 2:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 1.8e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.18 seconds.
Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.22 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 2 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.3e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.23 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 1.2e-05 seconds
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Chain 2:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 2.8e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.28 seconds.
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1.5e-05 seconds
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Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 1 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.8e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.28 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 1.3e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1.3e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.13 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 4 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.3e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.23 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.2 seconds.
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 1.4e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.14 seconds.
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.1 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 1 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.5e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.25 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 1e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.22 seconds.
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 5 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.3e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.23 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
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Chain 1: 0.093921 seconds (Sampling)
Chain 1: 0.18562 seconds (Total)
Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 1.3e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.13 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 2:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1.5e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.15 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 9 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.22 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
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Chain 1: 0.112631 seconds (Sampling)
Chain 1: 0.250912 seconds (Total)
Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.6e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.26 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 2:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 1e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.1 seconds.
Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1.9e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.19 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 59 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.22 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.5e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.25 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 2:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 1.5e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.15 seconds.
Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2.3e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.23 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 6 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.3e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.23 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.3e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.23 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 2:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.2 seconds.
Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1.8e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.18 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 25 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.8e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.28 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.8e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.28 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 2:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 2.5e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.25 seconds.
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1.1e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.11 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 1.9e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.19 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1: 0.196685 seconds (Total)
Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 1.7e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.17 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 2:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.22 seconds.
Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1.9e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.19 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.3e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.23 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
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Chain 2:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
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Chain 4:
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.7e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 1.6e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.16 seconds.
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2.4e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.24 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 4 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 1.7e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.17 seconds.
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 1.9e-05 seconds
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2.9e-05 seconds
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Chain 4:
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
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Chain 4:
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.2 seconds.
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Chain 2:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 1e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.1 seconds.
Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 3: 0.181848 seconds (Total)
Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2.3e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.23 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4: 0.182466 seconds (Total)
Chain 4:
Warning: There were 1 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.6e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.26 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
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Chain 1: 0.177397 seconds (Total)
Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 2:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 1.8e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.18 seconds.
Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 3: 0.161608 seconds (Total)
Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 23 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.3e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.23 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 1e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.1 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 2.6e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.26 seconds.
Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1.1e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.11 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 1 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.3e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.23 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.4e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.24 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 1.1e-05 seconds
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Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2.5e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.25 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 1 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 1.1e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.11 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2.4e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.24 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 11 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 1.3e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
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Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 1 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.5e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.25 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 1.4e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 1.7e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1.5e-05 seconds
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Warning: There were 4 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.3e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.23 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 1.9e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.19 seconds.
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 9e-06 seconds
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Warning: There were 8 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.3e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.23 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1.8e-05 seconds
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Warning: There were 41 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.6e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.26 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
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Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 1.9e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 3.8e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.38 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 1 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 1.9e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.19 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 2:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 1.9e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.19 seconds.
Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1.9e-05 seconds
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Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.22 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 1.1e-05 seconds
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Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 2:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 1.4e-05 seconds
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1.9e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.19 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 4 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.22 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.3e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.23 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 1.2e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.1 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Warning: There were 2 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.3e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.23 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 1.3e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 1.4e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 3 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 3.2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.32 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.5e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 1.9e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
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Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.4e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.24 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 1.2e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1.9e-05 seconds
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Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 1 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 1.9e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.19 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 7e-06 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
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Chain 4:
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.2 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.3e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.23 seconds.
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1.6e-05 seconds
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Warning: There were 9 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.3e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.23 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
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Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
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Warning: There were 12 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.6e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.26 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.3e-05 seconds
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Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 1.7e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.17 seconds.
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2.6e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.26 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 1 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.22 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 1.6e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 9e-06 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1.2e-05 seconds
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Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.4e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 9e-06 seconds
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Warning: There were 2 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.4e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
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Warning: There were 1 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.22 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
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Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
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Chain 2:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1.2e-05 seconds
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Chain 4:
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.2 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 1.9e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 1.4e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 17 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.22 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2.3e-05 seconds
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Chain 4:
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.22 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2.8e-05 seconds
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Warning: There were 17 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.4e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.24 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
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Warning: There were 6 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.22 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1.4e-05 seconds
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Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 3 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.22 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 2.3e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
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Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 1 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.4e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.24 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 1e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.1 seconds.
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1.1e-05 seconds
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Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 1.9e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.19 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 4e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
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Warning: There were 21 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
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Warning: There were 1 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.4e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.24 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 1 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
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Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
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Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1.3e-05 seconds
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Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
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Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2.4e-05 seconds
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Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 3 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 3.4e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.34 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
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Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.3e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.23 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
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Warning: There were 16 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.3e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.23 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
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Warning: There were 7 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.3e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.23 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
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Chain 2:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 1 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.6e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.26 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 1.5e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
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Warning: There were 11 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.5e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.25 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
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Warning: There were 2 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.3e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.23 seconds.
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
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Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
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Warning: There were 13 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.9e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.29 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
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Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 2:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.2 seconds.
Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 3: 0.198618 seconds (Total)
Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 3.3e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.33 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 7 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.4e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.24 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.22 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 2:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.2 seconds.
Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1.4e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.14 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 5 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 3.9e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.39 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.3e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.23 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 1.8e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.18 seconds.
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
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Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.5e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.25 seconds.
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 2.6e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 20 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.22 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.22 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 1 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.5e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.25 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.3e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 2.5e-05 seconds
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2.4e-05 seconds
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 1 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.3e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.23 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 2.8e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2.3e-05 seconds
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 2 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.22 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.5e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2.5e-05 seconds
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Warning: There were 12 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.4e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.24 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
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Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
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Warning: There were 1 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.4e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.24 seconds.
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2.4e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.24 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 3 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.22 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.6e-05 seconds
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Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 2.3e-05 seconds
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Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2.6e-05 seconds
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Chain 4:
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.22 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 1.6e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.16 seconds.
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2.8e-05 seconds
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Warning: There were 10 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.2 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2.3e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.23 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Warning: There were 3 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.7e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.27 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
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Warning: There were 1 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.22 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
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Chain 4: 0.255842 seconds (Total)
Chain 4:
Warning: There were 1 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.2 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
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Chain 1: 0.109485 seconds (Sampling)
Chain 1: 0.225424 seconds (Total)
Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 2:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.2 seconds.
Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 3: 0.194884 seconds (Total)
Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.1 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4: 0.206472 seconds (Total)
Chain 4:
Warning: There were 86 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.22 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 2:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 1.8e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.18 seconds.
Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1.9e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.19 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 2 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.22 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 2.4e-05 seconds
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Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1.4e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.14 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 6 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 1.9e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.19 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.7e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.27 seconds.
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2.6e-05 seconds
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Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.22 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
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Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 1.1e-05 seconds
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Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 2:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1.9e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.19 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 1 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 3e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.3 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.9e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
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Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 3.3e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2.4e-05 seconds
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Warning: There were 3 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 4 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
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Warning: There were 1 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.22 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
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Chain 2:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 2.5e-05 seconds
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Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2.4e-05 seconds
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Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 1.9e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.19 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 2:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 1.7e-05 seconds
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Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 3.3e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.33 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 4 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 3.4e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.34 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.4e-05 seconds
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Chain 2:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
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Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2.3e-05 seconds
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Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 7 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.22 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 1.9e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.19 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 1.2e-05 seconds
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Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1.9e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.19 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 1 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.22 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 2:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.2 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 25 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.22 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 1e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.1 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 2:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.2 seconds.
Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2.8e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.28 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4: 0.088305 seconds (Sampling)
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 80 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.4e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.24 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 2.6e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.26 seconds.
Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
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Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 9e-06 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.09 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 2.6e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1.9e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.19 seconds.
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Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 1.6e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1.8e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.18 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Warning: There were 23 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.3e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.23 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 1.7e-05 seconds
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Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Warning: There were 21 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 3.2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.32 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
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Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.23 seconds.
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 1e-05 seconds
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1.1e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.11 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 1.9e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.19 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 2:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 1.8e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.18 seconds.
Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 1 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.3e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.23 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.4e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.24 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 2:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 2.3e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.23 seconds.
Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2.6e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.26 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 33 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.6e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.26 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.2 seconds.
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1.2e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.12 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 1e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.1 seconds.
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 1.2e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1.9e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.19 seconds.
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Chain 4:
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 1.9e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.19 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 1.1e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 9 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 3.8e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.38 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 1e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
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Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 1 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 1.5e-05 seconds
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Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 3.9e-05 seconds
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Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Warning: There were 2 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
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Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
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Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
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Warning: There were 15 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
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Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 2:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.22 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 1 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.2 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 1.6e-05 seconds
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Chain 2:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2.6e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.26 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 13 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.22 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.5e-05 seconds
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Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 2.3e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1.2e-05 seconds
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Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Warning: There were 38 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.22 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 2.4e-05 seconds
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Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2.3e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.23 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Warning: There were 11 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.4e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.24 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1.9e-05 seconds
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Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 2 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.4e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.24 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.6e-05 seconds
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Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 2:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1.7e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.17 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 40 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.4e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.24 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 1.5e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1.6e-05 seconds
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Chain 4:
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.22 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2.5e-05 seconds
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Warning: There were 1 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.9e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.29 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
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Warning: There were 2 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1.1e-05 seconds
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Warning: There were 3 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
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Chain 2:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.2 seconds.
Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 3:
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Chain 3: 0.068478 seconds (Sampling)
Chain 3: 0.152137 seconds (Total)
Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.22 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4: 0.150308 seconds (Total)
Chain 4:
Warning: There were 13 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.22 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 1.8e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.18 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 2:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1.8e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.18 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 69 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 3.2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.32 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 4.1e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.41 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2.3e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.23 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.3e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.23 seconds.
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2.7e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.27 seconds.
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Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 1.9e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.19 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2.7e-05 seconds
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 2 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.2 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1.9e-05 seconds
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Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 1 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.4e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.24 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
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Chain 4:
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.3e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
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Warning: There were 1 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 1.9e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.19 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
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Warning: There were 8 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.3e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.23 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
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Warning: There were 6 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.22 seconds.
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
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Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2.3e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.23 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.3e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.23 seconds.
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Chain 2:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 1.4e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.14 seconds.
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1.9e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.19 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 2 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.22 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 3e-05 seconds
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Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.2 seconds.
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2.4e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.24 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 4 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.22 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.4e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.24 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 8e-06 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
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Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 4e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.4 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.3e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 8e-06 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1.8e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.18 seconds.
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Warning: There were 2 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.2 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
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Chain 4:
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.4e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.24 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.4e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.24 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 2:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.22 seconds.
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.2 seconds.
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 23 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.3e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.23 seconds.
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 1e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 1.7e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
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Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
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Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.4e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.24 seconds.
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 2.5e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
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Chain 4:
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
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Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.3e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2.5e-05 seconds
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Chain 4:
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.4e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.24 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.8e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 2.5e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 7 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.3e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.23 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.6e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 1.1e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1.6e-05 seconds
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Warning: There were 2 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.4e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.24 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.7e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
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Warning: There were 19 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.4e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
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Warning: There were 5 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.3e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.23 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.7e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
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Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.22 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 1.5e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
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Warning: There were 14 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.22 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
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Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
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Warning: There were 11 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
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Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
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Chain 4: 0.111651 seconds (Sampling)
Chain 4: 0.378366 seconds (Total)
Chain 4:
Warning: There were 17 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.5e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.25 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
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Chain 1: 0.092897 seconds (Sampling)
Chain 1: 0.354897 seconds (Total)
Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 2:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 2.4e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.24 seconds.
Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.22 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 21 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.4e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.24 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 1.9e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.19 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 2:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 1.3e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.13 seconds.
Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2.3e-05 seconds
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Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 2 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.22 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 1.7e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.17 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 1.8e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.18 seconds.
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1.5e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.15 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 1 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.5e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.25 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
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Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2.6e-05 seconds
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Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Warning: There were 2 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.4e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.24 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1.7e-05 seconds
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Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 2 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.22 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
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Chain 1: 0.247847 seconds (Total)
Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 4.4e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.44 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 2:
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Chain 2:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 2.5e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.25 seconds.
Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.2 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.22 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.22 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.2 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 2 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.7e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.27 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.22 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 2:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 1e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.1 seconds.
Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 1.8e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.18 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 1.9e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.19 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.22 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 1.7e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.17 seconds.
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2.4e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.24 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Warning: There were 38 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.4e-05 seconds
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Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2.5e-05 seconds
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Chain 4:
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.2 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.2 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 2:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
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Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2.9e-05 seconds
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 11 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.22 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.5e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 3.1e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 2 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.22 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.4e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
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Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
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Warning: There were 4 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
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Warning: There were 27 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.5e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.25 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
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Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 3:
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Chain 3: 0.209319 seconds (Total)
Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.22 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 2 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.4e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.24 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1: 0.276362 seconds (Total)
Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 1.2e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.12 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 2:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 2.6e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.26 seconds.
Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 4:
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.22 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.3e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.23 seconds.
Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 3.7e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.37 seconds.
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 3e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.3 seconds.
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Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.2 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 1.9e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.19 seconds.
Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 3:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.5e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.25 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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Chain 1:
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.3e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.23 seconds.
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.2 seconds.
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 4).
Chain 4:
Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 2.5e-05 seconds
Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.25 seconds.
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Chain 4:
Warning: There were 71 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
Chain 1:
Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 2.1e-05 seconds
Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.21 seconds.
Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 2).
Chain 2:
Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 2.2e-05 seconds
Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.22 seconds.
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SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 3).
Chain 3:
Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 2e-05 seconds
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Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
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Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
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Warning: There were 3 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
Adding missing grouping variables: `COMPANY`
SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'Sarima' NOW (CHAIN 1).
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Warning: There were 7 divergent transitions after warmup. See
http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#divergent-transitions-after-warmup
to find out why this is a problem and how to eliminate them.
Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems
df <- data.frame(unique_COMPANY_2[1: total_number_of_COMPANY_2], point, low, high)
df
testing <- data_elimatedO %>%
group_by(COMPANY) %>%
filter(row_number()==1)
training <- anti_join(data_elimatedO, testing)
Joining, by = c("YEAR", "COMPANY", "MARKET.CAP", "EARNINGS", "SALES", "CASH", "Name", "Sector", "Earnings_next_year", "EARNINGS_Scaled", "CASH_Scaled", "MARKET.CAP_Scaled", "Earnings_next_year_Scaled", "SALES_Scaled", "EARNINGS_1_YEAR_AGO", "EARNINGS_2_YEAR_AGO", "EARNINGS_3_YEAR_AGO", "EARNINGS_4_YEAR_AGO", "SALES_1_YEAR_AGO", "SALES_2_YEAR_AGO", "SALES_3_YEAR_AGO", "SALES_4_YEAR_AGO")
bayesian_forecast_earnigns = merge(x = df, y = testing, by = "COMPANY", all.x = TRUE)
bayesian_forecast_earnigns <- bayesian_forecast_earnigns %>%
select(COMPANY, point, low, high, YEAR, Earnings_next_year_Scaled)
write_csv(bayesian_forecast_earnigns, "bayesian_forecast_earnigns.csv")